Factfulness

The Gap Instinct

Recognise when a story talks about a gap, the reality is often not polarised at all. Usually the majority is in the middle; look for the majority.

• Beware comparisons of averages.
  • Check the spreads to see if there is an overlap.
• Beware comparisons of extremes.
  • The majority is usually in between.
• The view from up.
  • Looking down distorts the view.

The Negativity Instinct

Recognise when getting negative news, remember that information about bad events is much more likely to reach us; we often don’t hear about when things are getting better. Expect bad news.

• Better and bad.
  • Distinguish between a level and a direction of change.
  • Thing can be both better and bad.
• Good news is not news.
  • Good news is almost never reported.
  • When you see bad news, ask whether equally positive news would have reached you.
• Gradual improvement is not news.
• More news does not equal more suffering.
  • It is sometimes due to better surveillance of suffering.
• Beware of rosy pasts.

The Straight Line Instinct

Recognise the assumption that a line will maintain straight. Such lines are rare in reality. Remember that curves come in different shapes.

• Don’t assume straight lines.
  • Many trends do not follow lines but are S-bends, slides, humps, or doubling lines.

The Fear Instinct

Recognise when frightening things get our attention, remember that these are not necessarily the most risky. Calculate the risks.

• Fear vs. Reality.
  • The world seems scarier than it is; what you hear about it has been selected because it is scary.
• Risk = Danger $\times$ Exposure.
• Get calm before you carry on.
  • When you are afraid, you see the world differently.

The Size Instinct

Recognise when a lonely number seems impressive, you could get the opposite impression if it were compared with / divided by some other relevant number.

• Compare.
  • Always look for comparisons.
  • Ideally, divide by something.
• 80/20.
  • When given a long list, look for the few largest items and deal with those first.
  • 20% of things account for 80% of the importance.
• Divide.
  • Amounts and rates can tell very different stories.
  • When comparing between countris or regions, look for rates per person.

The Generalisation Instinct

Recognise when a category is being used in an explanation, they may be misleading. Question your categories.

• Look for differences within groups.
  • Especially when the groups are large, look for ways to split them into smaller categories.
• Look for similarities across groups.
  • Reconsider your categories’ relevance if so.
• Look for differences across groups.
  • Do not assume what applies for one group applies for another.
• Beware of the majority.
  • The majority just means more than half.
• Beware of vivid examples.
  • They might be the exception rather than the rule.
• Assume people are not idiots.
  • When something looks strange, be curious and humble.

The Destiny Instinct

Recognise that many things appear to be constant just because the change is happening slowly. Remember slow change is still change.

• Keep track of gradual improvements.
  • A small change every year can translate to a huge change ovber decades.
• Update your knowledge.
• Talk to Grandpa.
• Collect examples of cultural change.

The Single Perspective Instinct

Recognise that a single perspective can limit your imagination. Get a toolbox, not a hammer.

• Test your ideas.
  • Don’t only collect examples that show how excellent your ideas are.
  • Have people who disagree with you test your ideas and find their weaknesses.
• Limited expertise.
  • Don’t claim expertise beyond your field.
  • Be humble about what you don’t know.
  • Be aware of the limits of the expertise of others.
• Hammers and nails.
  • If you are good with a tool, you may want to use it too often.
  • No one tool is good for everything.
  • Be open to ideas from other fields.
• Numbers, but not only numbers.
• Beware of simple ideas and simple solutions.
  • Welcome complexity.
  • Combine ideas.
  • Compromise.
  • Solve problems on a case-by-case basis.

The Blame Instinct

Recognise when a scapegoat is being used. Blaming an individual often steals the focus from other possible explanations and blocks our ability to prevent similar problems in the future. Resist finding a scapegoat.

• Look for causes, not villains.
  • Accept that bad things can happen without anyone intending them to.
  • Spend your energy on understanding the multiple interacting causes or system that created the situation.
• Look for systems, not heroes.
  • When someone claims to have caused something good, ask whether the outcome might have happened anyway even if the individual had done nothing.

The Urgency Instinct

Recognise when a decision feels urgent. It rarely is. Take small steps.

• Take a breath.
  • It’s rarely now or never and it’s rarely either/or.
• Insist on the data.
  • If something is urgent and important, it should be measured.
  • Only relevant and accurate data is useful.
• Beware of fortune-tellers.
  • Any prediction about the future is uncertain.
  • Insist on a full range of scenarios, never just the best or worst case.
  • Ask how often such predictions have been right before.
• Be wary of drastic action.
  • Ask what the side effects will be.
  • Ask how the idea has been tested.
  • Step-by-step practical improvements are less dramatic but usually more effective.

References

• Rosling, H. (2023). Factfulness. Flammarion.